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Germany: Fault lines of the political crisis The "People's Party," which for almost 80 years managed to unite the petty bourgeoisie and the backward sections of the working class in a single party under the command of finance capital, is rapidly crumbling towards the 20% mark. Class polarization is undermining its social foundation: the petty bourgeoisie and the working class are seeking other parties. The SPD, the traditional party of the working class, has been further depleted over the past 30 years through participation in government and austerity measures. It is now hovering around the 10% mark. The party leadership and parliamentary group are tapping into the reserves of its social base: they are striking a radical tone, promising to soften the harshest cuts, and attempting to plug budget gaps with debt. For example, Labor Minister Bärbel Bas declared on May 1st that she considers attacks on the welfare state "cynical, inhumane, and therefore we must defend ourselves against them." These delaying tactics are becoming less and less effective, however, because the SPD is implementing cuts and managing deindustrialization. This goes against the interests of the working class, which is turning away from the SPD in large numbers because it objectively has to break with the class compromise and is looking for a way to do so. With the CDU/CSU and SPD, the two crucial pillars of the class compromise, i.e., of bourgeois democracy, are in crisis. The "democratic" form of the dictatorship of capital only functions as long as the main parties of the ruling class (the CDU/CSU) and, above all, the reformist mass organizations (SPD, DGB) can keep the masses passive and bound to the policies of finance capital. The Merz government is attempting to maintain this class compromise because capital lacks the social basis for any other form of rule. III . But increasingly, the Merz government is in limbo. Its room for maneuver is dwindling, just as it was with the previous traffic light coalition. This is objectively forcing the ruling class to seek a different government constellation. Christian von Stetten, head of the most important group within the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, the Parliamentary Circle of Small and Medium-Sized Businesses, says that the government will "not last four years." If the SPD doesn't fall in line, then "it's pointless to travel to Berlin every month for three years. We don't need to manage this kind of collapse." Objectively speaking, the ruling class needs a bourgeois-conservative government that implements its program rigorously and relies on the support of the lower middle class. But the traditional coalition – CDU/CSU and FDP – is no longer feasible. The AfD, which is now approaching the 30% mark, offers another option. A steadily growing segment of the ruling class is turning to the AfD. The FAZ elite panel states that over 50% of "business leaders" are at least in favor of "selective cooperation" with the AfD. With the deepening economic crisis and a Merz government that fails to solve any problems, capital will have to increasingly consider the AfD. IV. The AfD was able to seize a strong position through radical demagoguery because the Left Party, due to its reformist policies and its rejection of class struggle, failed to establish itself as a credible alternative to the SPD over the past two decades. The AfD benefits from the mass exodus from the CDU/CSU, SPD, and Left Party (in the east). It draws its support from the lower middle class, the middle classes, and the working class by demagogically presenting itself as a fundamental opposition to the political establishment. The AfD's ability to attract support from all classes might make it seem particularly suitable for a bourgeois-conservative government. But the AfD will be under the same pressure of societal class conflict as the CDU. The unification of all classes in a right-wing bourgeois party is not sustainable under today's conditions of organic capitalist crisis, as Trump's MAGA movement demonstrates. Such demagogic parties contain a great deal of social dynamite. As long as there is no reorientation within the ruling class and the CDU/CSU, the Merz government will remain in power. It is a prisoner of the ruling class's indecisiveness and that of its political caste. They are still weighing the costs of a black-red coalition against a blue-black one. A black-red coalition would mean stagnation and decline on all levels. A blue-black coalition, however, cannot guarantee success, as the examples of Italy and the USA demonstrate. Moreover, it carries the far greater risk of mobilizing the organized labor movement and the youth against such a bourgeois bloc. The ruling class – the SPD, the Left Party, and the trade unions – cannot sell an AfD-CDU/CSU-CDU/CSU bloc as a democratic governing coalition within the traditional framework of German parliamentary democracy. They would perceive such a government as a rejection of the class compromise and of "democracy," and a move towards "authoritarianism." This could push labor organizations onto a collision course with such a government. Capital fears open class struggle and therefore tries to steer the SPD in the right direction, while it has to hope that the "centrist parties" (Union, SPD, Greens, FDP) will recover in the next period. V. The crisis of bourgeois democracy, the decline of the CDU and SPD, and the contradictions inherent in the AfD provide the perfect foundation for enormous outbreaks of class struggle, even leading to revolutionary escalations. The most radical movement in this direction is the school strikes against conscription. However, radical youth are not yet sufficiently organized or experienced in class struggle to bring the working class along with them. The Left Party could have set the ball rolling after the 2025 federal election, but its leadership missed no opportunity to postpone the class struggle "on the barricades" and instead support the Merz government. Now, however, the party executive has announced that it will build a "multi-stage protest cascade" and register demonstrations "across the country for June." If the Left Party succeeds in mobilizing large segments of its millions of voters for such a movement, then the DGB trade unions would be forced into action. Even now, the DGB chairpersons regularly threaten verbal resistance; a mass left-wing movement could demand action from the DGB leadership and push them onto a collision course with the SPD. Such a development would be a crucial step in bringing class polarization to the surface. A broad movement of the working class and youth in the streets would reveal the true balance of power between the classes and give enormous impetus to the class struggle and the organizing of the working class and youth. We communists support every step in this direction and advocate for the communist program that the working class needs to defeat austerity, rearmament, the Merz government, and the AfD. https://derkommunist.de/bruchlinien-der-politischen-krise/ Back |
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