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South Africa Walks Diplomatic Tightrope Between Xi and Trump

Patrick Bond interviewed by First Post 8 February 2026

South Africa is navigating a high-stakes geopolitical balancing act as trade tensions with the US push Pretoria closer to Beijing. While China remains South Africa’s largest trading partner, the return of Donald Trump to the White House has severely strained the African nation’s relations with Washington. Facing a 30% US tariff and uncertainty surrounding the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), the Ramaphosa government is aggressively boosting ties with the East. Trade Minister Parks Tau recently secured a Framework Economic Partnership Agreement with China, paving the way for South African exports to get duty-free access to the Chinese market. Meanwhile, Trump has granted a one-year extension to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), but concerns remain over how it would affect South Africa… Now for more on this we have with us Patrick Bond who is a political economist and a distinguished professor at the University of Johannesburg joining us live from Johannesburg, South Africa. Hello to you Patrick. Great to speak with you again.

Patrick: Yeah, thanks for inviting me Alison. It’s good to be here.

Firstpost: Let’s jump right in. With South Africa signing a framework deal with China while still relying on a short AGOA extension from the US, is Pretoria successfully balancing its two biggest trading partners or is it being forced into a strategic pivot toward Beijing? It really depends upon what gets exported, doesn’t it? Because the US will make the claim that it is more developmental, because it’s importing South African automobiles and steel and iron. So it has a higher manufacturing input. that is the smelting that goes into steel takes our iron ore and our coke coal and produces steel and aluminium as well. But the Chinese have begun to penetrate this market of steel because they no longer export as much steel to the US, because of Trump’s tariffs.

So the displacement means that, last year, we lost a large share of steel output because of the cheap imports. The same is true, this year, for automobiles and it’s led the main union to complain that there need to be higher tariffs against China. And those tariffs were put down by Minister Parks Tao who is now cutting the new deal. But he put on tariffs last year on Chinese steel and washing machines and nuts and bolts and tires. And we expect high tariffs on autos, maybe 50%. So this is a very complicated situation where something that Trump does reverberates through the system. So will China take more imports of South African platinum and gold the raw materials that they’re known for, because of this? Probably also probably more agricultural exports. But how much remains to be seen.

Firstpost: Right. And just how significant is the proposed early harvest agreement with China in practical terms? which sectors then stand to benefit most? And could this realistically offset the impact of the 30% US tariff on South African exports?

Patrick: Yes. Well, that 30% tariff may be in flux because it certainly hit hard on several of the exports. Maybe most importantly, the grapes and wine products from South Africa’s vineyards – ironically, where Afrikaner farmers are allegedly – in this ridiculous claim - facing a genocide. So, in fact, Trump is the main problem on that 30% tariff imposed in August. But if AGOA really does bring it back to 0%, especially on automobiles, on steel and aluminium - which I doubt will happen because of the power of those lobbies. So it’ll be all other goods. Then what China really brings, especially to citrus exports from northern South Africa and the rooibos - the indigenous South African tea that comes from the Cape - that’s probably much higher exports.

And there may be more because in addition to Parks Tau, the other key figure in this deal is named John Steenhuisen, and he’s the white minister of agriculture promoting the interests of the big white exporters. And he’s done a good job. But he comes from the centrist party, the Democratic Alliance, that’s been hostile to China. It’s quite ironic. He’s now stepping back from leadership, after a bruising internal battle. So, things in this country are quite in flux, in terms of leaders and which way they’re moving. But at least China is offering this tariff-free Early Harvest. And they’ve done it with many other countries. And it is an important addition to the export revenue for South Africa, still to come.

Firstpost: And given these strained diplomatic relations with Washington and South Africa’s tenuous position under ago, take us through just how sustainable is this trade lifeline and what are the risks if a longer-term deal with the US fails to materialize after December?

Patrick: Well, because China is exporting like crazy into South Africa - in ways that are de-industrializing, dramatic de-industrialization in heavy sectors like steel and automobiles - but also because China and the BRICS is allegedly going to have increasing relations, especially if we can get trade finance without a US dollar. That’s the next big challenge for the BRICS. It could be important. Don’t forget also that we have an African Continental Free Trade Area, which is going to be boosted by South Africa joining the Afreximbank. That’s a new - 1993 - bank based in Cairo. That should make trade facilitation on the continent easy. But of course the big question for China is will they use South Africa as a platform, just to export in to the rest of the continent – and local producers don’t get much benefit. And so we’re all up in the air on trade, just the way the whole world is. All we know is that when the Trump regime put on a massive import tariff, South African exports of cars [to the US] fell 82% in the first half of 2025 and caused major shutdowns. And the ironic thing there, is that the plants that are shutting will probably be bought by Chinese companies, which will then do local production. So everything’s in flux and the question is whether South Africa has potentially better, equitable relations with a country that now is de-industrializing big chunks of the economy because of this free trade. And whether Donald Trump’s attitude may ultimately change, and he won’t have such a vitriolic hatred of the South African leadership. And these are still to be watched in 2026.

Firstpost: Right Patrick, thank you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckChajl8u_U&t=435s

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