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United States. Donald Trump enters the midterm elections weakened. In other words, what is at stake on November 3 is not only who will control Congress, but also the extent of discontent with Trump, and whether the new energy that left-wing figures bring to the Democratic Party will be able to capture the imagination—and contain the anger—of sectors fed up with the status quo . This last point is important. No election can resolve the deep crisis facing the two-party system. A cornered and therefore more dangerous Trump, and a Democratic Party attempting to dictate the terms of its progressive insurgency from above, are confronted by an impatient population, fed up with the war, ICE, and the astronomical cost of living. The stage is set for a deepening of the fractures within the two capitalist parties and for a growing politicization that could transcend the boundaries of the electoral cycle and transform into a struggle from below. Trump's coalition is breaking up According to several major polls, the Republican Party is expected to suffer a major setback as a result of the backlash against Trump: the rejection of the war with Iran and Israel's genocide in Palestine, the relentless deployment of ICE across the country, the deepening cost-of-living crisis, and Trump's threats against democratic rights. Early voting data suggests that this anger is mobilizing primarily among the Democratic base, although it is also coming from sectors that previously supported Trump himself. Latino voters who backed Trump and the Republicans in 2024 are now abandoning the Republican Party. Some of that support has shifted to the Democrats, but more than 42% of Latino voters say they don't trust either party. The New York Times ' podcast, The Daily , is full of testimonials from Trump voters who refuse to vote Republican and are now looking to the other side of the political spectrum for change. They are drawn to the Democrats' populist message, which is anti-Trump and anti-establishment. The businessman has also lost the trust of a significant portion of the agricultural sector, which was once one of his main strongholds of support. The situation became so critical that he announced an $8 billion emergency fund, called the Harvest Fuel Relief Fund , to make extraordinary payments to farmers in the hope of winning them back. But the shift in his base's support goes beyond the last two years. The war against Iran may have been the final straw, but the promises Trump has campaigned on for more than a decade ring hollow: ending endless wars, rebuilding American manufacturing and agriculture, and lowering the cost of living. Whether the White House's tactics, based on raising the specter of communism and appealing to racist fears, will be persuasive enough to convince traditionally Republican voters that their vote represents the lesser evil remains to be seen. In this sense, the two-party system has made the old political axiom that the ruling party loses in midterm elections a self-evident truth. The Democratic Party now has a considerable chance of winning both houses of Congress: political analyst Nate Silver estimates that the Democrats have a 95.1% chance of gaining a majority in the House of Representatives, while their chances of securing a majority in the Senate are 77.7%. However, this apparent advantage says less about the Democratic Party's ability to capture voters' imaginations than about the polarized nature of an election in which a growing segment of the population is entering the political arena to reject not only Trump but also the political establishment. The most novel aspect of this election is the rise of candidates on the left wing of the Democratic Party, competing in hotly contested races at both the state and national levels. Many are aligned with Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), or are running as part of a bloc of Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) candidates . Sanders endorsed more than 80 candidates in this election cycle, and his campaign reports that more than 75% won their primaries. Meanwhile, 123 DSA candidates won their primaries, including 19 congressional hopefuls and five candidates for state offices. Support for these candidates goes beyond anti-Trump rhetoric. It expresses widespread discontent with austerity and war. But it also reflects the political conclusions being reached by increasingly broad sectors of society, stemming from the grassroots movements that have mobilized the masses over the past decade. This is a political generation (of all ages) shaped by Black Lives Matter , attacks on transgender people, the international movement against genocide, and the protests against ICE that shook Los Angeles, Chicago, Minneapolis, and cities across the country. In these movements, immigrants and citizens are uniting to protect themselves and their neighbors. This energy has also spread to the labor movement, where workers are organizing new sectors from the ground up and confronting the Trump agenda, as seen in the economic shutdown in Minneapolis. In the short term, these sectors are likely to improve the Democrats' electoral performance, both at the ballot box and through the volunteer work of those who canvass neighborhoods to campaign for progressive candidates, many of whom are organized in the DSA and progressive NGOs. However, the question remains whether other disillusioned voters—including some Republicans and independents in states and districts that supported Trump and the Republican Party—will also switch sides and vote for the Democrats, altering the electoral map for the 2028 presidential election. The elections to watch closely The opportunity to capitalize on discontent with the Trump administration has put the spotlight on several key elections. In North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper is expected to take the lead over Republican Michael Whatley in the Senate race, while the Senate race in South Carolina, a solidly Republican state, is now considered wide open with no clear frontrunner. Democrats are hoping this will finally be the year they flip Texas. There, James Talarico is facing Ken Paxton. Both parties are mobilizing their top figures and sparing no expense in their final campaign efforts. The Democratic Party sent former President Barack Obama to campaign for Jon Ossoff in Georgia. Trump himself is crisscrossing states he won handily in his three presidential bids but which are now swing states. Another sign of how toxic Trump has become is that some Republicans are distancing themselves from the president in the final days before the election. Trump has already canceled several appearances in key states and replaced them with virtual campaign events. With such a significant portion of the electorate still up for grabs, both parties sense a potential battle. This has become the most expensive election in history, with total spending on political advertising and campaigns exceeding $11.2 billion to $11.6 billion. Billionaires like Elon Musk—the largest individual donor in this election, who is pouring money into the race to bolster Republican chances in places like Texas—are trying to tip the scales in an effort to save the Trump administration and stem the potential fallout from a progressive wave within the Democratic Party. Other elections carry particular weight because of the candidates running. They will serve as a barometer to gauge the extent to which a progressive populist message—focused on the cost of living, public health, ending aid to Israel, taxes on the wealthy, moratoriums on data centers, and anti-establishment rhetoric—can become a viable alternative for the future of the Democratic Party, one that might appeal to a working-class electorate. No election better represents these tensions than Abdul El-Sayed's candidacy for Senate in Michigan. This race perfectly encapsulates the contradictions facing the Democratic Party's insurgent wing and the challenges it encounters both on its right and within its own party. To appeal to moderate voters and garner more support from the Democratic establishment, El-Sayed distanced himself from the DSA during the primaries and bluntly stated, "I believe in capitalism." However, this did not prevent Republicans from launching virulent racist and Islamophobic attacks against him. Trump himself labeled El-Sayed a "jihadist" at recent campaign rallies across the country. Trump's personal involvement in a Senate race in Michigan demonstrates the importance he attaches to this contest. On the other side, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders each contributed $1 million to El-Sayed's campaign. The election will serve as a test for the party's left-wing candidates who are able to attract both moderate voters and those who reject the establishment, without strictly identifying with the DSA and its program. On another front, the elections represent a national test for the DSA candidates, who openly identify with the word "socialism," following their strong showing in the primaries. Figures like Claire Valdez and Darializa Chevalier in New York; Melat Kiros in Colorado; and Chris Rabb in Pennsylvania have a good chance of winning their seats. But there is also Angie Nixon in Florida, a DSA member who could become the first African American senator in the state's history. Nixon won her primary decisively with a platform that includes Medicare for All, universal childcare, a national rent freeze and eviction moratorium, stronger union protections, and taxes on the wealthy. She also sued the state of Florida for blocking her access to "Alligator Alcatraz," the infamous immigrant detention center inaugurated by the president. Now she faces Republican Ashley Moody. That a member of the DSA is contesting a competitive election in a state that was long a Republican stronghold, and is the home of presidential hopeful Marco Rubio, is a particularly revealing example of the contradictions of the American political landscape. Then there's the Los Angeles mayoral race, where progressive Nithya Raman is facing off against Karen Bass, a entrenched figure in the Democratic establishment. Raman gained ground by framing the election as a referendum on Bass, widely seen as an ally of big business and responsible for the extraordinary crackdown on anti-ICE protesters last year. The Los Angeles branch of the Democratic Socialist Party (DSA) endorsed Raman, but both its members and the national organization are questioning that decision because of the donations her campaign received from Zionist organizations and her refusal to support the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) movement against Israel. Although Raman is not a member of the DSA, the tensions surrounding this election illustrate the difficulties the organization faces nationally when its vision of municipal socialism clashes with the Democratic Party machine. This experience is also reflected in the growing criticism facing democratic socialist Zohan Mamdani, just ten months after he took office as mayor of New York City. What a Democratic Congress will not do If the Democrats achieve the sweeping victory they expect next week, it will be largely due to the popularity of progressive candidates within the party and the efforts of millions mobilized by campaigns promising change from the status quo . Many of them dedicated countless hours to canvassing neighborhoods, campaigning, and fundraising. The DSA is likely to gain more representation at all levels of government than at any other time in its history. This opens a new chapter for the largest socialist organization in the United States, and with it, new challenges and contradictions, as it attempts to operate within a party led and composed of billionaire capitalists. A Democratic-controlled Congress will not be led by its progressive wing directly imposing its agenda, but rather by an establishment that mediates between the various factions and the growing aspirations of a population that distrusts both parties. It is unclear how such a Congress could offer an alternative to the problems plaguing the Trump administration. Regarding the war against Iran, Democrats intensified their anti-war rhetoric, but historically they have sought to contain the regional power's influence and have no viable way to halt the offensive Trump promised to launch. Moreover, we know that the Democratic Party did little more than stand idly by when it controlled the Executive Branch and both houses of Congress in 2021. During that period, we witnessed the greatest setback for reproductive rights in a century with the overturning of Roe v. Wade, the landmark decision that protected abortion rights, as well as internal disputes that paralyzed Biden's tepid agenda and paved the way for Trump's return. In other words, the Democratic Party's lack of a compelling vision for its own base doesn't mean there's a free hand in Congress to conquer the progressive agenda. While the party can't completely reject its progressive wing, it will find ways to keep it in check, not least by invoking the need to unite against an unpredictable Trump during his final two years in office. The Democratic Party is more likely to move toward increased tensions between its various factions than toward the complete leftward shift Sanders predicts. Of course, a weakened Trump is not necessarily a less dangerous Trump. If the Democrats retain control of one or both houses of Congress, the president could increasingly resort to Bonapartist measures to impose his agenda, especially on immigration, democratic rights, and strengthening the executive branch, as well as internationally with the war against Iran. The United States and Israel have already threatened to launch a new offensive after their respective elections. And while it seems unlikely that conditions will be sufficient for the administration to interfere widely in the elections, Trump is demonstrating his strength through threats to that effect. It also cannot be ruled out that he or the Republican Party will attempt to challenge the results in certain electoral districts. Added to this is a new offensive against immigrants. The administration opted for less visible ICE operations, but arrests made by the agency have increased since June. This is largely due to cooperation with local police, a practice preceded by negotiations to de-escalate the conflict between Minnesota Democrats and Trump after the uprising in Minneapolis. The increase in arrests has led to a greater number of people being held in the squalid and inhumane detention centers scattered across the country, where medical care is denied and abuses are tolerated. The tycoon even used his offensive against immigrants to directly tip the electoral scales in his favor: he opened a fiercely xenophobic investigation against Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar less than a month before the election, and reinforced ICE operations in California to instill fear and discourage people from going to the polls. The Democratic Party did little to respond to these attacks. They capitalized on the backlash against ICE during their campaigns, and many candidates won primaries by openly advocating its abolition. However, in practice, the party collaborated with the Trump administration to prevent the flames of class struggle from igniting, except when it had no other choice. Democratic leadership in both houses of Congress supports tepid ICE reforms while leaving most of the US immigration policy, characterized by xenophobia and extreme exploitation, intact. Hundreds of thousands of people across the country hope that a progressive bloc in Congress will fight to make the demands to abolish ICE and end Trump's anti-immigrant offensive a reality. Some of the candidates running for office have even put their bodies on the line on more than one occasion to defend immigrants, such as Darializa Chevalier. However, the contradiction lies in the fact that it was the New York City Police Department, in a city governed by a democratic socialist, that repressed her. Mamdani's negotiations with Trump after the shooting that killed Oscar Belgal demonstrate that top-down "pragmatism" fails to remove ICE from our streets or protect those who confront that agency from repression. Meanwhile, the administration is waging an offensive against the left as socialism gains popularity across the country. These McCarthy-style attacks are being replicated in workplaces and universities throughout the United States. A faction of the Democratic Party has already disavowed "socialism," though the popularity of Democratic Socialist candidates limits how far the leadership can distance itself from that term. But will figures like Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer defend Democrats who are targeted by the administration's attacks or threats? If the experiences of Representatives Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib over the past eight years are any indication, they themselves will often be leading those attacks. A cornered Trump will lash out both at home and abroad. The result will be an offensive against democratic rights and the most vulnerable sectors of the working class. Underlying all of this is an austerity agenda that is dismantling social programs under the guise of fighting fraud and corruption, while ever-increasing resources are being poured into building data centers that are destroying our communities. Resist and fight on our own terms. Amid this dispute, the aspirations of workers to fight for better living conditions and defend themselves in an unsustainable scenario are relegated to the sidelines. This is expressed in the enthusiasm for candidates who openly identify with socialism and, from another perspective, in Sanders's position as the most popular incumbent politician today. It is also manifested, in a distorted way, in the empty rhetoric against the establishment and the billionaires employed by candidates on both sides of the political spectrum. But above all, it is expressed in the millions of people who have taken to the streets in recent years to protest against ICE, police brutality, imperialist war and genocide, laws against transgender people, and gender violence. It is also expressed in those who went on strike to demand wage increases and more staff; in those who fought against inhumane working conditions at UPS and Amazon; and in the teachers and other workers who confronted masked and armed men to protect their immigrant communities. This social force is not synonymous with the Democratic Party. In fact, it has confronted Democratic governors and mayors of states and cities, and has shouted in the face of those who justify genocide, even when they masquerade as progressives. This social force needs organization and representation to shape its demands: universal healthcare and childcare, guaranteed housing, an end to genocide and imperialist war, the abolition of ICE and full rights for immigrants, and a fight against austerity and the capitalist crisis. Over the past few years, the outlines of a national program for the working class to confront the crisis have been taking shape. The success of this general platform among progressive candidates has even led left-wing sectors and organizations like the DSA to look toward the next election cycle and consider a presidential candidacy headed by Ocasio-Cortez. But the Democratic Party is not the vehicle for achieving our demands: it is an obstacle. We have already seen how quickly the party disavowed the DSA's "Workers Deserve More" program , including several candidates endorsed by the organization and entire sections of the DSA itself. Experience has taught us that parties change politicians, not the other way around. Sections of the DSA and progressive figures ridicule those of us who propose breaking with a party responsible for genocide and capitalist misery. But failing to do so amounts to a pact with the devil: achieving short-term electoral successes in exchange for strategic defeat when the real battles arrive. Devoting our time to revitalizing the Democratic Party will not build a force capable of confronting the struggles ahead. It only teaches us to water down our demands while calling it a victory, and to limit our class's self-organization when it erupts in schools, workplaces, and the streets. If we want to see another path, we need only look at France. Young people and workers—who share our rejection of police brutality, genocide and war, the far right, and capitalist austerity—are organizing by the thousands from the ground up, through assemblies and meetings where they collectively decide how to move forward with a national movement against the Macron government and its attempts to steal their future. They have rejected every one of the government's empty "concessions" because they know they deserve more and that they have the strength to fight for it. They have chosen the path of struggle and organization. In the United States, it has become common to claim that we are nothing like France, Spain, Serbia, or India. However, our movements are part of the same phenomenon, one that has put socialism on the lips of millions of people across the country and around the world. Let's prepare the largest socialist organization in the country to field a candidate, but not within the Democratic Party. The working class needs its own candidates. It needs independent campaigns that unambiguously raise the demands of the working class. But these campaigns must serve to propel the struggle from below, not to use it as cover or as a pressure campaign aimed at securing concessions that merely appease the exploited and oppressed, instead of preparing them to fight for more. Because that struggle is crucial to confronting nothing less than the power of the capitalist class. And the fight against the far right and for our demands cannot wait for the next election cycle. In other words, if we're talking about elections, they can't be seen as an end in themselves, but rather as a challenge to build the party we need: a party capable of uniting our demands against the two major parties of capital. A party of our own whose sole objective is to organize and unify the struggles of the working class and the oppressed wherever they arise, and to give voice to the demands that emerge from the movements, until our will becomes impossible to ignore. https://www.laizquierdadiario.com/Donald-Trump-llega-debilitado-a-las-elecciones-de-medio-termino? Back |
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